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The inside story of how short-seller Carson Block made a killing this year, even as the market made life miserable for many investors

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carson block

  • Carson Block's firm Muddy Waters is said to have returns of about 18% this year; other short-sellers have also posted gains.
  • It's been a brutal year for many hedge funds as markets melted down in October.
  • "We're not really correlated to the market," Block says.

The short-seller Carson Block, who founded Muddy Waters Capital, says he's managed to dodge the wild ride in equity markets that has put many of his hedge fund peers in the red.

"We're happy with how things have gone this year," he said in an interview. While he declined to quantify the fund's performance, a person familiar with the matter said Muddy Waters had posted returns this year of about 18%.

It's not a bad result for what has been a brutal year for many equities traders. October was a bloodbath for stock markets, and few felt the pain like hedge funds, which turned in a rocky month for the ages.

"Because we trade around short activism, we're not really correlated to the market," he said. "Our strategy is slightly negatively correlated to the market. The only catch here is that for a purely short activist strategy, it's not super scalable."

This year Block targeted the Canadian insurance firm Manulife, a London semiconductor company called IQE, and the Chinese tutoring company TAL Education Group. The stocks all plunged when he released his reports.

Read more:Hedge funds just suffered through their worst month in 8 years — here's why their struggles could just be getting started

Muddy Waters is not alone among short-sellers doing well in 2018. Ben Axler's Spruce Point Capital is up 25% this year, while Eiad Asbahi's Prescience Point Capital Management posted gains of about 47% in the first nine months of the year, people familiar with those returns told Business Insider. Reuters has reported that Sahm Adrangi's Kerrisdale Capital was up 45% through the end of September.

"Obviously, we do take into account macro factors," Block said. "We try to hedge the beta of our trades, somewhat isolate for that and really try to focus on the idiosyncratic aspects of the name."

Block is best known for calling out fraudulent Chinese companies, shooting to fame after calling the timber company Sino-Forest a fraud in 2011. The company has since filed for bankruptcy. After he called out Rino International and China MediaExpress, they were delisted from major US exchanges.

Some powerful players in China didn't appreciate his line of work, and Block, a Mandarin speaker, left China for San Francisco in 2010, claiming he was chased out by "gangsters." He now finds companies to short all over the world.

Leveraged loans

Block also makes bearish bets on stocks via corporate bond markets. One strategy is to buy a bond and then use the repayments to help fund the purchase of long-dated contracts — or puts — that pay out when the stock declines.

"It's a synthetic short position in the stock," he said. He might consider ramping up that strategy if a disconnect emerges between loans and stocks, for example if the loans get cheaper and thus offer more funding to buy more puts, before the equity market catches up.

"There are some concerns about the leveraged loan market," he said. "If we didn't have equity hedges on, it's something we'd be really concerned about."

Souring on Europe

"Europe has a lot of structural issues that promotes poor corporate governance," he said, including a more deferential investing culture relative to that of the US. "Presumably, that creates a target rich environment, but in Europe there just isn't the protection of free speech the we have here in the US."

He continued: "That presents issues when your business model is speaking truth to power. There's a temptation for power to be misused to punish the speakers unduly when the scrutiny should be on the companies."

Block said Muddy Waters hadn't initiated a short against a European company since April 2016, when he accused the German ad firm Stroeer of overstating its cash flow.

"Never say never," he said of targeting Europe again. "I'm always watching."

SEE ALSO: Activist short seller Carson Block is taking aim at 'amoral' investing practices and says it's time to 'name names'

NOW READ: We spoke with Wall Street's 8 best-performing fund managers of 2018 to find out how they crushed the market — and what opportunities they're pursuing for 2019

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Clint Carlson's hedge fund loses its chief risk officer in the latest senior staff departure

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  • Michael Palys, Carlson Capital's chief risk officer, has resigned.
  • Carlson Capital, founded by Clint Carlson in 1993, also lost its longtime treasurer, Michael Watson, and head of fixed income, Ivan Ross, earlier this year.
  • The $8.5 billion hedge-fund manager's performance is up this year. It had lost roughly $1 billion in assets toward the end of 2017 because of poor performance in its biggest funds.

Clint Carlson's Dallas hedge fund, Carlson Capital, is losing another senior member of its team.

Michael Palys, the $8.5 billion multistrategy firm's chief risk officer, submitted his resignation, a source close to the firm told Business Insider. He will be replaced by Jehan Akhtar, who has been with Carlson Capital since 2000, most recently as the head of derivatives.

Earlier this year, Carlson Capital also lost its longtime treasurer, Michael Watson, and head of fixed income, Ivan Ross.

The firm, which celebrated its 25th anniversary in October, has improved its performance this year after a tough end to 2017, when assets fell by roughly $1 billion.

Performance in the firm's two flagship multistrategy funds, Double Black Diamond and Black Diamond, have returned 2.73% and 2.28% through the end of November, respectively, a source close to the firm told Business Insider. The two funds, which make up roughly half of the manager's assets, lost 4.47% and 5.99% in 2017.

The hardest-hit fund in 2017, Black Diamond Thematic, has returned 3.41% through November after losing 22.1% last year.

Carlson Capital's three main funds have outperformed the industry, which on aggregate has lost 2% for the year, a recent report from Hedge Fund Research said.

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It's 'something you really can't model for': The sudden prospect of a Trump impeachment has hedge funds scrambling

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trump impeachment protest

  • Markets are being driven by politics and hedge funds are already beginning to assess the risk that US President Donald Trump may face impeachment in 2019.
  • It's not the only risk on their radar, of course, and nor is it the most likely. But investors are talking about it as a possibility.
  • At least three Wall Street hedge funds are trying to assess how an impeachment might affect the markets.

Investors have a lot to worry about in 2019 — there's the trade war with China, Federal Reserve policy, and oil prices to name a few.

Recently, a new worry has cropped up: a possible Trump impeachment.

At least three Wall Street hedge funds and asset managers have started talking about the possibility of the impeachment of US President Donald Trump as a potential market catalyst in 2019, according to people familiar with their thinking.

It's an unwelcome development for hedge fund managers, who are finding it difficult to adjust their strategies to fit the increasingly uncertain political reality thanks to a soon-to-be Democrat-controlled House of Representatives. They can handle normal macro factors like central bank activity and trade tensions, but they view impeachment as a wild card — and it's thrown a wrench into their best-laid plans.

"That's something you really can't model for," said Larry Newhook, the CEO of Alpha Innovations. The firm runs a managed account platform for institutions to access smaller strategies and funds.

It's a relatively new market catalyst, coming after the midterms which saw Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives and ever-present turmoil in the administration. In betting markets, the odds that Trump will be booted from office next year are shortening. After the midterms that saw Democrats flip the House and pick up dozens of seats, oddsmaker Bovada increased the likelihood of an impeachement, with a $100 bet on a Trump impeachment only paying out $125 compared to a $160 payout before November. Currently, the oddsmaker has a $100 impeachment bet paying out $150. 

It's now also enough of a possibility to land on the radar of big investors.

"Internally, we're talking about this because it's interesting, but if it gets more significant we will talk about it more," said one London-based asset manager at a Wall Street firm. "I'm not sure it's a market positive, but it may not be a market negative. And it will take a long time."

Markets can react sharply to big geopolitical and global economic events, leading to big paydays for so-called "macro" investing strategies. A Trump impeachment would be behind other, more pressing macro risks next year, the asset manager said, such as, in order of magnitude: Fed policy, the US-China trade war, the "leveraged loan" boom, eurozone drama, emerging market turmoil and volatile oil prices. (The person added that Brexit is much higher on that list for UK-focused investors).

Newhook said that even comparing it to Bill Clinton's impeachment in 1998 wouldn't do much good because the market has changed so much in the years since.

Correctly gauging price moves from geopolitical events can be incredibly profitable. Big macro funds like Jeffrey Talpins' Element Capital have posted stellar returns in a year when the average hedge fund through the end of November has declined 2%.

But the last quarter of 2018 has been brutal for investors of all stripes — the average macro fund, according to data from Hedge Fund Research, lost 4.1% through November. Even one of the world's best macro traders, George Soros, is reportedly pulling back on the strategy. Soros Fund Management has cut its allocation to macro investments to $500 million compared to $3 billion last year.

"All you can do is say 'Hey, do I want to be aggressive with my risk-taking or not?'" said Newhook, who was formerly the head of due diligence for hedge-fund giant Steve Cohen. "The one thing you don't want to be doing if you think impeachment is possible is be short volatility. The bottom line is that this is just another source of volatility."

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Investors are deserting markets and clawing back money from hedge funds — echoing the run-up to the financial crisis

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  • Evidence is mounting that market liquidity is drying up, a report from Deutsche Bank released in the final days of 2018 says.
  • Slumping liquidity, or fewer investors buying and selling, raises concerns for 2019, a team of analysts from the bank wrote.
  • Such a decline, they said, echoes what happened prior to the financial crisis.
  • "We recall that the unwinding of quant funds in August 2007 and macro funds in October 2015 were harbingers of subsequent market turbulence," they said.

Declining liquidity and a surge in the number of hedge fund redemptions have eerie similarities to events prior to the financial crisis and could be "harbingers" of further market turmoil to come in 2019.

Writing on December 28, a Deutsche Bank team led by the analyst Masao Muraki said that liquidity had started to dry up in certain areas of the market and that it was a concern for the already battered global stocks. Lower liquidity generally means bigger swings in market prices because fewer trades generate a bigger impact on the market.

As liquidity has declined, Deutsche Bank's analysts wrote, so has the number of hedge fund redemptions increased, something that not only could be a "harbinger" for further market volatility but that also has echoes from the months before the financial crisis.

"News of hedge fund redemptions has emerged since October 2018," Muraki and his team wrote. "The sustained high level of volatility has worsened the profitability of consensus trades based on market momentum, and the fall-off in market liquidity has generally hurt their performance as well."

If the markets continue their negative trajectory, and early signs in 2019 are that they are likely to do so, then falling liquidity could help make downward moves even larger.

Read more: A star economist says these 30 risks will define markets in 2019

"We recall that the unwinding of quant funds in August 2007 and macro funds in October 2015 were harbingers of subsequent market turbulence," they continued.

Many view evaporating liquidity in parts of the market in late 2007 as one of the first concrete signs the financial crisis was beginning to crystallize.

In August 2007, France's largest bank, BNP Paribas, froze withdrawals from three investment funds, citing "the complete evaporation of liquidity in certain market segments," which it said "made it impossible to value certain assets fairly regardless of their quality or credit rating."

The event was cited by Alistair Darling, the UK's chancellor of the exchequer at the time, as the moment he knew that a major crisis was on its way.

Deutsche Bank is not the first institution to warn about falling liquidity. Back in July, Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at the asset-management giant BlackRock, said tightening policy from global central banks was straining bond market liquidity and starting to send shockwaves through markets.

Muraki and his team's report ends on a somewhat reassuring note: Things are not yet at precrisis levels.

"We believe the level of maturity and liquidity transformation in advanced economies is lower than before the global financial crisis," they concluded.

SEE ALSO: If you thought 2018 was bad for markets, a cocktail of fears is set to make 2019 even worse

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Bridgewater, the biggest hedge fund in the world, crushed it in 2018 as most funds struggled

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  • The world's biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, posted a 14.6% return for its flagship fund in 2018.
  • The fund was one of the few to post big gains in a year when hedge funds on average were down about 6.7%.

In a year when hedge funds saw bad performance and a surge in shutdowns, a few firms managed to avoid the carnage. The world's biggest hedge fund, the $160 billion Bridgewater Associates, was one of them. 

Bridgewater's flagship fund, Pure Alpha, posted a 14.6% return net of fees in 2018, according to a person familiar with the firm's performance. 

That made the fund one of only a few to post big gains in a year when hedge funds on average were down about 6.7%, according to the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index. 

The billionaire hedge fund manager David Einhorn posted his worst year ever, and Dan Loeb's Third Point also struggled.

Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, has said that the economy is at "the seventh inning of the short-term debt cycle" and that the next financial crisis will play out more slowly than the one in 2008.

Speaking with Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget in December, he said: "They're tightening monetary policy. Asset prices are fully priced. And we're in the later stages of a long-term debt cycle, because the capacity of the ability of central banks to ease monetary policy is limited."

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$21 billion hedge fund BlueMountain Capital is axing its long-short equity fund after only 2 years and firing several portfolio managers

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Andrew Feldstein, co-founder of BlueMountain Capital Management, sits during the Harbor Investment Conference in New York, February 13, 2013. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

  • BlueMountain Capital is ending its long-short equity strategy, a source close to the firm tells Business Insider, only two years after starting it.
  • The firm is firing several portfolio managers on the equities team after recruiting talent from hedge funds like Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors and Citadel alum Anand Parekh's Alyeska Investment Group over the past year.
  • The firings are not related to the firm's decision to double down on its bet on the troubled California utility company PG&E in November, the source tells Business Insider.

The $21 billion hedge fund BlueMountain Capital Management is closing its long-short equity fund just two years after launching it, a source familiar with the situation tells Business Insider.

As a result, four equity portfolio managers were fired this week, several sources tell Business Insider.

BlueMountain recruited several money managers from other funds as it restructured its equity business in 2018, including Mahmood Reza from the billionaire Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors to make investments in financial companies and Sanket Patel from the Citadel alum Anand Parekh's Alyeska Investment Group to manage energy investments.

BlueMountain put Lance Rosen, the former president and chief investment officer of Kinrose Capital, in charge of its equities strategy in July 2017 and promoted Jared Gould from senior analyst to portfolio manager in early 2018 as well.

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As of September 2017, the long-short strategy managed about $1.2 billion, according to a regulatory filing. It remains unclear how the group's assets have changed since then.

"As a multi-strategy asset manager, we regularly expand our range of investments with new strategies that leverage our capabilities, address our clients' needs and expectations, and adapt to changing markets," a BlueMountain spokesman said in a statement. "Our continued focus is on the strategies in which we think we can be distinctive and have the most conviction, therefore, we have decided to discontinue our sector-based long-short equities strategy, as it is configured now. We will continue to invest in equities through a number of our other strategies, including distressed, systematic, merger arbitrage, and special situations."

BlueMountain was launched as a credit shop in 2003 by the founders Andrew Feldstein and Stephen Siderow but has added several strategies to its offerings, including systematic equity and collateralized loan obligation arms.

The termination of the strategy and the subsequent firings are not related to the firm's decision to double down on its earlier bet on the troubled California utility PG&E, a source close to the company tells Business Insider. It was reported earlier this month that PG&E might consider filing for bankruptcy over the billions in liabilities it faces following the deadly California wildfires.

In a December letter to investors, BlueMountain put its target price on PG&E's stock at $59.10 a share and wrote that insured losses against the company were "overstated." The utility's stock opened Friday trading at $17 a share.

2018 was a very tough year for hedge funds broadly, with a surge in poor performance and a string of high-profile shutdowns. The billionaire hedge fund manager David Einhorn posted his worst year ever, and Dan Loeb's Third Point also struggled.

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A mystery trader just made a massive bet on the S&P 500 that could lose $558 million if the market turns

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  • A trader sold 19,000 put options on the S&P 500. The bet could pay off about $175 million, or lose big — up to $558 million.
  • Reuters reported that some in the market thought the trade was probably a hedge.

An anonymous derivatives trader is betting big on the S&P 500.

The trader sold 19,000 put options on the benchmark that would obligate them to buy the index at 2,100 on December 18, 2020, Reuters reported on Monday, citing data from the options-analytics firm Trade Alert. The S&P 500 opened at 2,586.18 on Tuesday.

It could be a winning bet to the tune of about $175 million, as long as the index doesn't drop more than 22% from Monday's closing level of 2,582 by that date.

But if the S&P 500 goes the wrong way, the trader may stand to lose up to half a billion dollars.

For example, if the index were to drop 34% by December 18, 2020, the losses could amount to about $558 million, Reuters said, citing a Refinitiv analysis.

Some in the market said the trade was probably a hedge against another position rather than a speculative bet on a rally in the S&P 500.

"The natural sellers of long-term downside puts are structured products desks at banks, who are hedging exposure they get from retail clients who buy structured notes that have embedded short put options," Benn Eifert, the chief investment officer of QVR Advisors in San Francisco, said on Twitter, according to Reuters.

"That would be my default guess on this."

The S&P 500

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$4 billion hedge fund Jana Partners is cutting its stock-picking funds to double down on shaking up companies

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Barry Rosenstein

  • $4 billion hedge fund manager Jana Partners is cutting two funds focused on traditional stock-picking strategies to focus on activism, according to a letter seen by Business Insider.
  • The firm has a $1.5 billion activist fund, Jana Strategic Investment fund, and is planning to a launch a socially- focused activist fund later this year.
  • The firm is the latest to cut its stock-picking offerings after a tough year for these funds. 

Barry Rosenstein's Jana Partners is cutting its two stock-picking funds that manage billions to focus on its core strategy of investing in companies to improve their performances. 

The firm told investors in a letter obtained by Business Insider that it plans to liquidate the Jana Partners and Jana Nirvana funds to focus on $1.5 billion activist fund Jana Strategic Investment. The manager will also launch a socially activist fund called Jana Impact Capital later this year.

"This is where we have delivered our best returns for investors, developed a real competitive advantage, made our mark on numerous industries, and where we see our future and the richest opportunity set," the letter said. The letter noted that investors in the chopped funds can reinvest in Jana's activist fund or pull their money from the firm.

Jana, which managed more than $11 billion at its peak in 2015, follows $21 billion manager BlueMountain Capital Management in cutting its traditional stock-picking funds. Multi-strategy managers are moving away from the crowded long-short space, where funds bitterly fight to eek out returns, to focus on more unique competencies investors crave.

According to Hedge Fund Research, stock-picking hedge funds lost an average of 7% in 2018, worse than the overall industry, which declined by an average of 6.7%. The Jana Partners was down 8% last year, according to Reuters, and has trailed the stock market every year since 2013. 

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Old school stock-pickers like billionaire Leon Cooperman and George Soros' protege Stanley Druckenmiller have said the reason long-short managers can no longer perform like they once did is because quant funds that trade based on algorithms distort the market. Large quant managers, like AQR, have brushed off this criticism, and industry insiders say individuals with quant backgrounds will be in high demand this year. 

Jana's activism strategy has landed the firm board seats at Tiffany & Co. and Orville Redenbacher parent company ConAgra Brands. The firm also partnered with California State Teachers Retirement System last year to pressure Apple to help parents limit screen time for young children. 

A Jana spokesman declined to comment. 

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One year ago, the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund predicted that people holding cash would 'feel pretty stupid.' He was wrong.

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Ray Dalio

  • Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said one year ago Tuesday that investors holding cash would feel "pretty stupid," as he touted a strong market environment.
  • Dalio's call did not pan out; cash was the best-performing asset in 2018, outperforming stocks, bonds, and commodities.
  • He made those comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Dalio defended those comments on Tuesday at this year's forum.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, madean investment call one year ago that turned out to be quite ill-timed, suggesting it would be unwise for investors to hold cash.

"There is a lot of cash on the sidelines. ... We're going to be inundated with cash," he said in a CNBC interview on January 23, 2018, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "If you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid."

Dalio made those comments at a time when the S&P 500 was up 25% in one year and companies received a boost from President Donald Trump's corporate tax cuts. Dalio himself touted a strong "Goldilocks" environment for investors — low inflation, high growth — though noted the current economic cycle was in a late stage.

In other words, he recommended that staying invested, rather than reallocating to cash or cash-equivalent investments, was prudent because a rally was on the way.

For a time, he was correct. The S&P 500 rose 3.6% between the market's close that day and its intraday peak on September 21.

Ultimately, at the end of a perilous year in the financial markets, cash turned out to be the best-performing asset, outperforming stocks, bonds, and commodities. Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that cash was the only major asset that posted positive returns in 2018, gaining 1.9%. Meanwhile, stocks booked their worst year since the financial crisis.

Now read: Cash was the best-performing asset of 2018. Here's what 'going to cash' means.

Dalio appeared to defend his year-old comments on Tuesday, at this year's forum. He pointed to the impact of rising interest rates on the market.

"I think if you take what I said was, in the first half of the year, you're going to get that stimulation, and then you're going to have the Federal Reserve respond to that stimulation," he said in an interview with CNBC.  

"And you're going to probably make it too tight. And if the interest rates rise faster than discounted, then that tightness — I don't believe they could tighten at the rate that they said they would tighten, including the balance sheet, without having a negative effect. And then in the second half of the year, I figured that was going to happen anyway." 

Bridgewater Associates manages $160 billion, drawing the title of world's largest hedge fund as measured by assets under management. The firm performed remarkably well in 2018, posting a 14.6% return for its flagship fund at a difficult time for the hedge-fund industry. Last year, hedge funds on average lost 6.7%.

Bridgewater declined to comment to Business Insider.

Read more:

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A little-known hedge fund just made a surprising short bet worth $182 million on Italian high-end clothing maker Moncler

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  • Bayfront Investments is shorting Italian sportswear maker Moncler in a massive single trade worth about 160 million euros ($182 million).
  • At 2.03%, the stake of borrowed stock as a proportion of this company's shares has never been seen before, says short research firm Breakout Point.
  • "We rarely see shorts over 100 million euros," Breakout Point said. "It is a very rare one."

A mysterious bet just popped up in a securities filing. A hedge fund called Bayfront Investments is shorting Italian sportswear maker Moncler in a massive single trade worth about 160 million euros ($182 million).

Moncler is best known for its puffy coats that can cost thousands of dollars. It's not hard to see why short sellers may be circling Moncler the stock is down almost 30% from highs reached in June. Bayfront made the trade on January 18, according to a regulatory filing.

But what makes this trade unusual is its size. At 2.03%, the stake of borrowed stock as a proportion of this company's shares has never been seen before, says short research firm Breakout Point.

"We rarely see shorts over 100 million euros," Breakout Point said in an email, adding that the biggest short its analysts have seen before this was a 1.6% short by AKO Capital back in April 2015, when Moncler was trading about 50% lower than it is now. "It is a very rare one."

The fund is fully listed in the filing as Bayfront Investments (Mauritius) Pte Ltd, Singapore Branch. And before this trade, it was unknown to Breakout Point. It's likely that Moncler is Bayfront's first short of notable size (above 0.5%) in Europe. 

Unlike in the US, some European regulators require investors to disclose short positions when they exceed a certain percentage of the stock. 

A Mauritius-listed number for Bayfront was not answered.

Breakout Point

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The government requires banks, brokerages, and casinos to take specific steps to prevent money laundering. But not hedge funds.

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  • The federal government has required banks, brokerages, and even casinos to take steps to stop customers from using them to clean dirty money.
  • However, investment companies such as hedge funds and private equity firms have escaped multiple efforts to subject them to rules meant to combat money laundering.
  • Experts say it's impossible to quantify how much money may be laundered through hedge funds.
  • While prosecutors retain the right to charge such a fund if it is proven to have participated in money laundering, regulators cannot fine the fund's managers for not taking steps to prevent abuse.
  • The Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental organization that seeks to combat money laundering around the world, has repeatedly tried to anti-money laundering rules for investment advisers to no avail. 

For many years, the federal government has required banks, brokerages, and even casinos to take steps to stop customers from using them to clean dirty money.

Yet one major part of the financial system has remained stubbornly exempt, despite experts' repeated warnings that it is vulnerable to criminal manipulation.

Investment companies such as hedge funds and private equity firms have escaped multiple efforts to subject them to rules meant to combat money laundering.

The latest attempt, which began in 2015, appears to have ground to a halt, according to sources familiar with the process.

"You've got several trillion dollars, the management of which nobody is required to ask any questions about where that money is coming from," said Clark Gascoigne, deputy director of the Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition. "This is very problematic."

The Treasury Department initially exempted investment firms, planning to return to them after tackling other sectors.

The Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental organization that seeks to combat money laundering around the world, characterized the lack of anti-money laundering rules for investment advisers, such as those who manage hedge funds and private equity funds, as one of the United States' most significant lapses in a report two years ago.

The push to regulate hedge funds and similar investment firms took off after the Sept. 11 attacks, when Congress passed the Patriot Act.

bush signs patriot actAmong other things, the law required federal agencies to take new steps to keep illicit money out of the US financial system. The Treasury Department exempted investment firms at the time, planning to return to them after tackling other sectors.

"Eighteen years ago, the Patriot Act required investment companies to install their own AML [anti-money laundering] programs," said Elise Bean, a former staff director of the US Senate investigations subcommittee who supports the proposed rule. "But Treasury has yet to enforce the law," she said.

Read more: The sale of passports to the super wealthy gives free reign to mobsters and money launderers, Europe warns

The Treasury Department, through its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or FinCEN, initially proposed rules in 2002 and 2003 requiring firms like hedge funds and their investment advisers to adopt anti-money laundering measures. That attempt languished as FinCEN waited for the Securities and Exchange Commission to retool its approach, said Alma Angotti, who wrote the original proposal while at FinCEN and is now co-head of global investigations for the consulting firm Navigant.

So much time passed that FinCEN withdrew the proposed rules in 2008. FinCEN then launched its second attempt to impose such regulations seven years later.

That second attempt is the one that has now crawled to a virtual stop. "It's the kind of thing that should have taken two to three years, not 17," said Joshua Kirschenbaum, senior fellow focusing on illicit finance at the nonpartisan think tank the German Marshall Fund and a former supervisor in FinCEN's enforcement division.

Hedge funds and private equity funds can be attractive to big-dollar launderers who prize the funds' anonymity.

Hedge funds and private equity funds can be attractive to big-dollar launderers who prize the funds' anonymity, the variety of investments they offer and, in some cases, their use of off-shore tax and secrecy havens, experts say.

After 2001, the number of annual hedge fund launches surged more than threefold, according to one report, and investments by high net worth individuals exceeded those of institutional investors.

"They're a black box to everyone involved," Kirschenbaum said. "They're sophisticated and can justify moving hundreds of billions."

cash moneyMoney launderers seek to hide illicit proceeds by making it appear they come from legal sources. Laundering hides crimes as diverse as drug dealing, tax evasion, and political corruption. Experts say the massive, untracked streams of cash it creates can fuel more illegal activity, including terrorism.

That's one reason banks are required to implement protocols aimed at identifying and reporting dodgy transactions to authorities, and verifying that customers are who they say they are.

FinCEN's latest proposed rule targets investment advisers who manage funds for clients such as hedge funds. The rule would apply primarily to the largest advisers with $100 million or more in assets under management, who are required to register with the SEC.

The ultra-wealthy involved in such graft often want to park their illicit profits somewhere safe.

"As long as investment advisers are not subject to AML program and suspicious activity reporting requirements, money launderers may see them as a low-risk way to enter the US financial system," the proposed rule states, noting that in 2014, 11,235 advisers registered with the SEC reported roughly $61.9 trillion in assets for their clients.

Foreign political corruption is one of the money laundering risks for investment advisers, Angotti said. Instead of needing quick access to their money, the ultra-wealthy involved in such graft often want to park their illicit profits somewhere safe, making them more tolerant of fund rules that can delay withdrawals for a year or more.

Read more: Inside Miranda Kerr's romance with an accused money launderer that resulted in her handing $8 million in jewelry over to the government

Having federal anti-money laundering protocols is no panacea. Regulators periodically conclude that certain banks and brokerages are not abiding by various aspects of the rules.

Last year, for example, regulators announced more than $2 billion in penalties against Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, Charles Schwab & Co., UBS Financial Services, CapitalOne Bank and others, according to a company that tracks such enforcement. (The companies neither admitted nor denied the allegations against them.)

Morgan StanleyExperts say it's impossible to quantify how much money may be laundered through hedge funds. And prosecutors retain the right to charge such a fund if it is proven to have participated in money laundering; but without the FinCEN rules, regulators cannot fine the fund's managers for, say, not taking steps to prevent abuse.

There are multiple reasons the attempts to adopt rules have bogged down. The principal ones include the financial industry's cascade of requests for modifications to the rule and inertia among federal bureaucracies, according to people familiar with the process.

The industry has tended to proclaim that it favors the principle of anti-money laundering rules — while simultaneously contesting many of the specifics. Several industry groups contend that the proposed rule overstates the risk that private equity funds will be used for illicit finance.

'If you were trying to launder money, the last place you'd want to put it is in a private equity fund.'

"We're very supportive of having an aggressive AML regime," said Jason Mulvihill, general counsel of the American Investment Council, which represents private equity funds.

But, he added, "if you were trying to launder money, the last place you'd want to put it is in a private equity fund" because of the industry's standard practice of requiring investors to leave their investments in place for 10 years. And, he added, most private equity firms already have some anti-money laundering policies in place, just in case.

Mulvihill's organization has proposed that FinCEN exclude advisers who require investors to hold their investment for more than two years — a carve-out included in the original FinCEN proposal — which effectively would allow most private equity funds to remain exempt from the anti-money laundering rule.

The Investment Adviser Association also supports the goal of the regulations, said Karen Barr, the group's president and CEO. But it worries that some advisers will need to implement costly changes that aren't warranted.

Those include advisers who also have clients for whom they provide recommendations, not money management. "We think investment advisers are a low risk because they don't hold assets," she added. More than half have 10 employees or fewer, she said, and "the sort of cumulative effect of all these regulations on small shops is really burdensome."

In response to a request for an interview, a spokesman for the Managed Funds Association, which represents hedge funds, referred to a letter the group sent FinCEN in 2015, in which it stated that it "strongly supports adoption of the Proposed Rule." The letter also included 25 pages of "background," suggestions and requests for clarification.

Industry concerns were not the only reason for the rule's stasis, said former FinCEN employees who spoke with ProPublica. They said staffing, competing agency priorities, and other factors also contributed. The Trump administration's general slowdown in rule-making added to delays, they said.

The rule's implementation would also require coordination with the SEC, whose job it would be to make sure investment advisers are complying. Policing advisers has not been a major priority for the agency, which five years ago examined only 8% of registered advisers. The agency increased the number to 15% in 2017.

FinCEN and Treasury spokespeople did not return calls or provide answers to questions about the proposed rule that ProPublica sent by email. Many Treasury employees are not working because of the government shutdown. A spokesman for the SEC said the agency could not answer questions about the rule until the shutdown ended.

Seeing the rule flounder is vexing for Angotti. Some firms may be effectively executing their own anti-money laundering measures, she said. But without more scrutiny, she said, "who knows?" Such steps are expensive "and it requires them to turn away business," Angotti said. "Without strong enforcement, it's hard to get businesses to do this stuff."

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NOW WATCH: America is more politically divided than ever, and the government shutdown only makes that more apparent

'UNPRECEDENTED DANGER': Billionaire investor George Soros just went scorched Earth on China during his annual Davos speech

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  • George Soros, the billionaire investor and chairman of Soros Fund Management, delivered his annual speech at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
  • Soros absolutely unloaded on China and President Xi Jinping, warning the audience of the "unprecedented danger" the world faces at the hands of the emerging nation.
  • Soros also doubled down on comments made during his 2018 address, which saw him criticize "IT monopolies" like Facebook and Google. He believes that their behavior is enabling China's quest for a closed society.

DAVOS, Switzerland — George Soros has made a tradition out of giving a big speech at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting.

And based on how the last two years have gone, he's not in the business of making friends — especially not in the Chinese government.

The 2019 version of this — delivered on Thursday evening — featured Soros absolutely unloading on the emerging nation. After briefly greeting attendees, the billionaire investor and chairman of Soros Fund Management launched straight into his prepared spiel.

"I want to use my time tonight to warn the world about an unprecedented danger that's threatening the very survival of open societies," he said.

He continued: "I want to call attention to the mortal danger facing open societies from the instruments of control that machine learning and artificial intelligence can put in the hands of repressive regimes. I'll focus on China, where Xi Jinping wants a one-party state to reign supreme."

And with that, Soros was off and running.

Read more: Legendary billionaire Ray Dalio told a crowd at Davos that the next economic meltdown scared him more than anything — here's what he said, and why he's so worried

At the center of his anti-China argument was the concept of a centralized database of personal information called a "social credit system."

While Soros acknowledged that such a set-up doesn't yet exist, he said he fears the capabilities afforded by the world's technology heavyweights will hasten its arrival — and, in the process, dismantle what remains of an open society.

The speech was similar in tone to the one delivered by Soros in 2018, which saw him lament the global dominance of tech titans like Facebook and Google. He called them a "menace," and warned that their insatiable thirst for growth could eventually lead them to collaborate with authoritarian regimes like China.

Soros' latest comments pushed that discussion further, and explored the aftermath of a global environment where China's move away from an open society succeeded in full.

Read more: 'World power is shifting': A self-made Lebanese billionaire explains why all the best business opportunities are in the East, even as the trade war rages

"My key point is that the combination of repressive regimes with IT monopolies endows those regimes with a built-in advantage over open societies," Soros said. "The instruments of control are useful tools in the hands of authoritarian regimes, but they pose a mortal threat."

He continued: "China isn’t the only authoritarian regime in the world, but it’s undoubtedly the wealthiest, strongest and most developed in machine learning and artificial intelligence. This makes Xi Jinping the most dangerous opponent of those who believe in the concept of open society."

What the US can do about the China situation

When President Donald Trump embarked upon his ongoing Chinese trade crusade, Soros was pleased. In his mind, China needed to be challenged before it was too late, and Trump was taking a step in the right direction.

However, according to Soros, the president's follow-through has been disappointing. He noted that Trump's political desires made him more amenable to compromise, while he should've been taking a harder stance.

So what can the US do to play hardball and keep Xi from executing this nefarious closed-society plan? Soros outlined a pair of ideas.

First, he said that the ongoing global trade war should be focused solely on China. While it appears to be fairly targeted at the moment, Soros argued Trump should forget about other nations entirely.

Second, Soros said the US's handling of ZTE and Huawei — the two state-sponsored Chinese companies that recently came under fire for intellectual property theft, among other things — should be fierce. He wants the US to crack down on them.

But Soros' ultimate vision involves some sort of global agreement that puts tensions to rest. Allow him to explain:

"It is possible to dream of something similar to the United Nations Treaty that arose out of the Second World War," Soros said. "This would be the appropriate ending to the current cycle of conflict between the US and China. It would reestablish international cooperation and allow open societies to flourish."

Now read:

Legendary billionaire Ray Dalio told a crowd at Davos that the next economic meltdown scared him more than anything — here's what he said, and why he's so worried

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SEE ALSO: Legendary billionaire Ray Dalio told a crowd at Davos that the next economic meltdown scared him more than anything — here's what he said, and why he's so worried

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Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman calls for pay freeze in Congress to end government shutdown

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  • The billionaire activist investor Bill Ackman used Twitter late Thursday to weigh in on the partial US government shutdown.
  • Ackman called for members of Congress to have their pay stopped during the shutdown, saying such a policy would end government shutdowns.
  • It's an unusual move for Ackman, who has tweeted only 15 times since debuting on the social-media site in June 2017.

The billionaire activist investor Bill Ackman used Twitter late Thursday to weigh in on the partial US government shutdown, calling out members of Congress for getting paid while federal workers were not.

"Why should members of the Congress be paid while workers for the Federal government go unpaid? If we fixed this inequity, we would no longer have government shutdowns," Ackman, who heads the hedge fund Pershing Square, tweeted to his 23,000 followers.

Read more: Trump's former chief of staff John Kelly tells president and Congress to end the government shutdown

It's an unusual move for Ackman, who has tweeted just 15 times since debuting on the social-media site in June 2017. Three of those tweets, from this week, include a link to C-SPAN footage of a Colorado senator berating Sen. Ted Cruz.

2018 was a brutal year for hedge funds — Pershing Square lost 10.8% in December and ended the year off 0.7%.

Before that, Pershing Square suffered years of losses and investor redemptions in part because of wrong-way bets on Valeant (long) and Herbalife (short).

SEE ALSO: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet lets loose on Ted Cruz on the Senate floor, accusing him of hypocrisy over the government shutdown

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NOW WATCH: The founder of the World Economic Forum shares what he sees as the biggest threat to the global economy

It's not enough to be 2 guys from Goldman Sachs in a room with $5 million — the bar for launching a hedge fund is rising in 2019

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  • The bar for entering the hedge-fund industry has been raised, and smaller funds are having trouble raising money from investors.
  • The increased costs of running a hedge fund now compared with 10 years ago also make it challenging for startup hedge funds.
  • 2018 was the fifth consecutive year where total hedge-fund launches declined, despite big-name launches like Michael Gelband's ExodusPoint and Daniel Sundheim's D1 Capital Partners.

Becoming a hedge-fund manager in 2019 is harder than ever before.

Increased costs for technology, data, and compliance staff, along with tougher regulatory standards, have made it more challenging to launch a fund without a strong pedigree or a big-name supporter. These pressures are coupled with continued demand from investors to lower fees.

"It takes longer to raise assets, it takes longer to break even, and you have to be patient and set up your technology infrastructure in a way that it brings down costs," said Jordi Visser, the president and CEO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, which manages $1.7 billion across a hedge fund and a mutual fund.

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2018 was the fifth year in a row where total fund launches declined, plummeting nearly in half to 609 from 1,169 the year before, according to the hedge-fund tracker Preqin.

It was also the first year since Preqin started tracking hedge funds in 2003 that liquidations outpaced launches, as several well-known names like Jonathon Jacobson's Highfields Capital and Jason Karp's Tourbillon closed.

But while the number of new funds is shrinking, smaller firms that do launch are having trouble attracting capital from large institutional investors like pension funds and endowments who increasingly are shunning less established players, portfolio managers and hedge funds consultants say.hedge fund 2018 liquidations and launches

Technology expenses have also put pressure on new funds. The average annual cost for tech has climbed from $42.7 million in 2005 to $73.1 million in 2016, according to a study from consulting firms Alphacution Research and Aite Group that surveyed top hedge funds. 

Gone are the days when two guys from Goldman Sachs could raise $5 million from their friends and family and open a hedge fund, said Mike Harris, the president of the $3 billion quant firm Campbell & Company, founded in 1972.

"What it took to launch and run a hedge fund 40 years ago is much different now," Harris said.

Launches last year, like the former Millennium star trader Michael Gelband's $8 billion ExodusPoint and the Viking alum Daniel Sundheim's $5 billion D1 Capital Partners, made headlines for their eye-popping fundraising totals, and the institutional support they received is indicative of their standing in the industry.

Read more: We got a copy of billionaire hedge-fund manager Seth Klarman's letter to investors — here are his 5 biggest warnings about the economy

Rather than starting with $50 million to $100 million, companies are launching with $200 million to $500 million "with an advanced pedigree and well-known backers," said Eric Bernstein, the president of investment management solutions at Broadridge, which works with hedge funds on technology matters.

Jason Karp

John McCormick, the CEO of the biggest hedge-fund allocator, Blackstone Alternative Asset Management, told Bloomberg in December that his firm was planning to seed fewer firms this year.

"We're looking to partner with people who already have a significant following and reputation in the industry," McCormick said.

Read more:Hedge funds spend billions of dollars a year on alternative data. A new product is hoping to give investors an edge

One fund set to launch later this year is from the Citadel equity portfolio manager Jack Woodruff, who is said to be receiving capital from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin to start. And Michael Graves, a former top quant portfolio manager for Point72's Steve Cohen, is planning to launch a fund midyear with a fundraising target of $600 million to $750 million with backing from Paloma Partners, a $12 billion hedge fund.

Launch numbers might also suffer because the managers who most often peel off from a big hedge fund — star stock-pickers — may run into diminished demand, Bernstein said, after a volatile end of the year pushed many long-short funds' returns into the red. In the fourth quarter of 2018 alone, investors redeemed nearly $17 billion from equity hedge funds, according to Hedge Fund Research.

Bernstein said investors now want strategies like credit and global macro, which are seen as less correlated with the stock market.

A source at one of the biggest prime brokerages said investors looking for equity funds were leaning toward specialty offerings, like those focusing on healthcare or technology, over general stock-picking firms. And data from Hedge Fund Research showed that healthcare- and technology-specific equity funds were the only category of stock-picking products that finished 2018 with positive returns on average.

Investors did not end 2018 satisfied with their hedge-fund managers in just about any strategy, according to Preqin, which found that nearly four out of every 10 hedge funds declined by 5% or greater and that more than half of all investors said the fund or funds they were invested in fell short of their expectations.

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NOW WATCH: The founder of the World Economic Forum shares what he sees as the biggest threat to the global economy

A growing alternative data company helps hedge funds determine if CEOs are lying using CIA interrogation techniques

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  • A software company called Amenity Analytics reviews earnings-call transcripts, press releases, company research, and more to try to help hedge funds spend less time looking for important nuggets of information and more time trading.
  • The natural-language-processing software incorporates "publicly available" CIA interrogation techniques to find certain phrases and euphemisms that executives use to cloud the truth.

After a year of returns so poor that it prompted investors to redeem more than $33 billion, hedge fund managers are hungry for anything that gives them an edge on competitors and the market.

This has resulted in rapid expansion of alternative data providers, which mine for useful and actionable info in nontraditional ways.

One of these companies, Amenity Analytics, wants to cut the time analysts and portfolio managers spend poring over earnings-call transcripts by getting straight to the point: Some CEOs are not completely honest.

By using natural-language-processing software to review companies' transcripts, press releases, and public comments, Amenity assigns sentiments to key phrases and points. For example, the technology will identify words like "expanding" as positive while "limit" and "damage" are flagged as negative.

But the software goes a step beyond that as well, according to the Amenity Analytics cofounder Nate Storch, who was previously a portfolio manager at the New York-based hedge fund Talpion Fund Management as well as a mergers-and-acquisitions banker at Morgan Stanley. The tool also picks out phrases and euphemisms executives use to couch bad news, something the firm calls its "deception score."

While the deception tracker does not give a numerical rating to the different phrases executives use, it does assign one of 10 descriptions to each deceptive "event." Examples include selective memory — "when an executive claims not to be able to remember information"— and negative clichés that "are overused and betray lack of original thought."

To train the software to detect deceptive language, Amenity built "publicly available" interrogation methods used by the CIA and others into the system, Storch said.

Read more: Nasdaq is buying a company that offers hedge funds obscure data to give them a trading edge

The goal of the technology is to read body language through written text.

"For us, it's really a spotlight for analysts to say 'this is where you need to be digging,'" Amenity's marketing director, Mark Zepf, told Business Insider in an interview at the firm's Manhattan office.

With hedge funds down 4% on average last year and investors pushing portfolio managers to justify their fees, alternative data providers like Amenity have blossomed. According to AlternativeData.org, there are more than 400 providers providing datasets to 78% of the hedge fund industry. The industry group predicts that in 2020 hedge fund managers will spend more than $1.7 billion on alternative data, up from $400 million in 2017.

Amenity has hired aggressively to match the increased interest, tripling its workforce from 20 employees at the beginning of 2018 to 60 employees now, split between offices in New York and Tel Aviv, Israel.

Read more: Hedge funds spend billions of dollars a year on alternative data. A new product is hoping to give investors an edge.

The company has attracted notable names in the software space, with Intel investing in the 3-1/2-year-old company when Amenity was raising seed capital and holding a board seat. Nasdaq, Evercore, and Barclays are clients that have posted research using Amenity's software.

Storch said his firm was not trying to replace widely used data providers like Bloomberg or Thomson Reuters but instead sought to amplify the information provided by them.

"It's all the stuff that's not in your Bloomberg," he said. "It's an analyst for your analyst," he said.

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A billionaire investment chief at the world's biggest hedge fund explained to us why the economy is headed for '20 years of ugliness' — even if a major recession is avoided

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  • Bob Prince, the co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates — the world's biggest hedge fund — gave an exclusive interview to Business Insider last week at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
  • Prince explained why the economy is headed for "20 years of ugliness," rather than an acute recession to rival the 2008 financial crisis.
  • He also outlined his views on what's next for the US market and economy now that the Federal Reserve is scaling back monetary tightening.

DAVOS, Switzerland — Not all economic recessions are created equal.

While that may seem like an obvious statement, the nuances that have separated meltdowns throughout history often go overlooked when negative headlines abound.

That's why it can be so easy to see a recession warning and immediately think of the 2008 financial crisis, which was the worst since the Great Depression.

But Bob Prince, the co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates — the world's biggest hedge fund — was more measured in his outlook during a recent interview with Business Insider. While he does think an economic slowdown is in the cards, he expects it to unspool over a prolonged period.

"You're not really likely to have a sharp, depression-type environment," Prince told Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget during a Davos panel discussion. "20 years of ugliness is kind of what it looks like to us."

Read more: Legendary billionaire Ray Dalio told a crowd at Davos that the next economic meltdown scares him more than anything — here's what he said, and why he's so worried

At the center of Prince's slow-burn view is what he perceives as a toxic combination of populism and income inequality. He argued that it's a deep-rooted issue that could stretch for decades — one with no quick fix. Not even the 70% marginal income tax on the super wealthy recently floated by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can save the day, Prince said.

Followers of recent commentary from Ray Dalio— Prince's co-CIO — should already be well familiar with Bridgewater's view that divisive politics will make the next downturn that much more painful.

Of course, no measured view of an economic slowdown can be truly complete without an acknowledgement of the elephant in the room: the crippling debt load being held by both US companies and consumers.

With respect to that, Prince said the US finds itself at a "key juncture" best characterized by a broad, market-wide deleveraging. Now that the Federal Reserve is tasked with unwinding roughly 10 years of unprecedented monetary stimulus, any credit pullback could be bad news for investors.

Fortunately for debt-holders, the recent economic slowdown may keep the Fed from raising rates further, at least for a while. That should allow them some wiggle room when it comes to paying down obligations or refinancing.

But that doesn't mean the market as a whole is in the clear. According to Prince, the fact that so much of the US Treasury's debt is owned by foreigners leaves those holdings exposed to foreign-exchange risk.

While the dollar has shown great strength versus its developed-market peers over the past several months, Prince said a reversal of that trend could prompt unpredictable behavior from overseas investors.

And then there's the stock market, which Prince identified as the most likely short-term pain point for the US. Amid all the talk swirling about the economy and a possible recession, it's equities that have his attention.

"You've got a whole series of forces that are turning against corporations and profit margins," Prince said. "So your bigger risk is actually probably in the financial markets, rather than in the real economy. The real economy is more likely to kind of get stuck dealing with chronic, sub-par growth with low interest rates, as opposed to a sharp dip."

SEE ALSO: Legendary billionaire Ray Dalio told a crowd at Davos that the next economic meltdown scares him more than anything — here's what he said, and why he's so worried

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The co-CEO of the world's biggest hedge fund reveals why vulnerability is the secret to the firm's success

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  • The world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, is known for its culture of radical transparency.
  • Bridgewater employees are required to rate each other on roughly 90 different capabilities and skills to determine each team member's strengths and weaknesses, the firm's co-CEO Eileen Murray told attendees of Context Summits' Miami conference. 
  • Bridgewater, which manages $160 billion, was one of the few in the industry to provide positive returns to investors in 2018, posting a 14.6% return in its flagship fund.

A strong work ethic and high IQ are required to work at just about every hedge fund, but to work at Bridgewater Associates — the world's biggest fund that manages $160 billion — employees need to not just be open-minded, but vulnerable.

Eileen Murray, Bridgewater's co-CEO, told attendees at the Context Summits conference in Miami on Wednesday that Bridgewater's success can be attributed directly to the "radical truth and radical transparency" culture that founder Ray Dalio has preached. 

In practice, this culture includes "probing sessions" where 30 people will question an employee about a mistake, asking if it was a lapse in common sense, Murray said.

All conversations are taped and can be listened to by any employee, and, in meetings, executives and junior team members rate each other during meetings on different skills and values "to determine strengths and weaknesses." In 2018 alone, Murray said she was rated more than 40,000 times. 

"It's not for everyone," Murray said, as 30% of employees leave within the first two years. Murray herself was not convinced she would be able to handle it when she first joined in 2008. 

Read more: Bridgewater, the biggest hedge fund in the world, crushed it in 2018 as most funds struggled

"Having a junior person question what I am doing after I've been doing it for so long? That was not initially for me," she said.

Bridgewater was recently ranked as the most profitable hedge fund of all-time, according to LCH Investments. The fund in 2018 posted double-digit returns in a year where the average fund declined more than 4%. 

The strongest people are "vulnerable, and willing to admit their weaknesses," Murray said, and will have the most success at Bridgewater.

"It's kind of family atmosphere," said Murray, who has five brothers and three sisters. "Sometimes, family tells you stuff that you don't want to hear, but you know it's coming from a loving place."

Murray said that she can tell if a person is taking to the culture by the end of their first 18 months at Bridgewater. Some senior hires, she said, are excited about "working in a place with radical truth and radical transparency, until they were the ones that radical truth and radical transparency was applied to."

Read more: Legendary billionaire Ray Dalio told a crowd at Davos that the next economic meltdown scares him more than anything — here's what he said, and why he's so worried

Still, Murray believes the system keeps the firm efficient despite the time spent on evaluating each other. And "while taping every conversation is not a lawyer's dream," Murray said it frees employees from worrying about office politics. 

"At other places I have worked, people will be fired and be totally surprised having not seen it coming. That doesn't happen here."

Thanks to the ratings system, "people begin taking themselves out of certain situations that aren't their strengths." This "data collection process" is, according to Murray, what Dalio does on the investment side, but now applied to the manager's "human capital."

"We have people burn out, but I don't think it is because of the culture," she said. "There are just people that are uncomfortable with facing their weaknesses." 

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Billionaire investor Howard Marks' advice to wannabe hedge fund managers sums up how the industry has changed

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  • The billionaire investor Howard Marks, who cofounded Oaktree Capital in 1995, says it's gotten increasingly hard to start a hedge fund.
  • Hedge fund managers are seeing their pay squeezed compared with those of years past because of competition from passive investment products.
  • Hedge fund launches declined by nearly half in 2018 from 2017, according to data from Preqin.

The billionaire investor Howard Marks' first step for aspiring hedge fund managers dying to start their own fund is to find a time machine.

Marks, speaking Wednesday at the Context Summits conference in Miami, said those looking to launch a hedge should "start in 1968"— the year the Oaktree Capital cofounder left graduate school.

"The people that start in 2019 are not going to face the same opportunities that we faced," he said.

Factors such as passive investing driven by computers have made it more difficult for people to make a career out of investing, he said, noting that most computer-driven strategies can beat as much as 95% of investors.

Hedge fund launches declined by nearly half from 2017 to 2018, according to data from Preqin.

"The trend toward passive did not take place because the passive returns were so great — it was because the active returns were so bad," he said.

Read more: It's not enough to be 2 guys from Goldman Sachs in a room with $5 million — the bar for launching a hedge fund is rising in 2019

Still, Marks sees room for humans in investing to provide what he called "exceptional insight."

"I don't think a computer can sit down with an executive and tell that he's Steve Jobs," he said.

But the abundance of computer-driven investing options not only pushes people out of the space but also cuts down on pay since managers are competing with cheaper passive products. Fees have been cut to where the one-time typical charge of a 2% management fee and a 20% performance fee is now attached to just 30% of funds, according to Hedge Fund Research.

To launch a fund, "you have to do it because you love it, and if that all sounds attractive, then I would do it," Marks said.

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Investors are asking hedge funds to move to a '0-and-30' fee model, and it's putting pressure on a big chunk of the industry

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    • After one of the worst years of hedge fund performance on record, investors are shifting to fee structures where they only pay if they see returns on their money.
    • Hedge funds have been dropping the once-typical 2-and-20 model for years now, in which funds charge investors 2% of assets under management fees and 20% of profits.

 

Investors paid hedge fund managers millions of dollars in 2018 — even though most funds posted dismal returns.

For years, most hedge funds charged investors a flat rate of 2%, known as a management fee, as well as a 20% performance fee — known as the '2-and-20 model.' Hedge fund fees are typically higher than other types of investment funds, based on the promise they'd make money even if the market was down.  

But the emergence of public pressure from big investors like pension plans to lower costs — as well as several years of mediocre performance from hedge funds — has led to a re-thinking of what investors should be paying for.

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Commonfund, aConnecticut-based manager that oversees $24.1 billion for foundations and endowments, is OK with writing big checks to hedge funds, as long as they're making money. 

The investor has pushed for managers to accept a fee structure of 0-and-30 — as in no management fees whatsoever, but a performance charge of 30%.

“We are trading on some of the hubris of the hedge fund managers themselves," said Commonfund's CEO Mark Anson at the firm's 2019 outlook breakfast in New York last week. Anson believes that confident hedge fund managers will take on this structure and view it as an opportunity to make even more money based on their investment acumen, despite a lack of reliable management fees.

“We would prefer to pay no management fee, but give them a higher incentive fee," he said. 

The truth is that investors do not mind paying high fees if hedge funds are performing, Antonio DeRosa, head of advisory at Jefferies, told attendees at Context Summits conference in Miami this past week.

Context Capital Partners, which invests in funds on behalf of family offices, has for years invested with a hedge fund manager that keeps half of the returns it generates, and investors are OK with it because the strategy has been successful, according to CEO John Culbertson. 

Investors looking to trim their hedge fund fees are facing off with an industry that is coming off a tough year. Last year, performance was in the red for nearly every strategy type and launches were nearly cut in half as several industry titans closed shop or nixed strategies as they struggled to scratch out returns.

hedge fund 2018 liquidations and launches

Read more: A storm is brewing in the hedge fund industry. Here are 5 major changes coming to the industry in 2019. 

According to Hedge Fund Research, only 30% of managers still use the 2-and-20 structure. The Teacher Retirement System of Texas — the biggest US pension fund in terms of hedge-fund assets — has since 2016 pushed hedge funds to accept a 1% management fee and 30% performance fee structure, according to Brad Gilbert, the pension's senior director of hedge funds. 

With a more mature industry, "now is the time to be creative" with fees, says Jon Hansen, managing director of Cambridge Associates, who invests in hedge funds on the behalf of pensions, endowments and family offices. 

On a panel at Context Summits conference, Hansen said there was "an anchor effect" early on in the hedge fund space that made new entrants to the industry feel like they were required to charge 2-and-20 — a sentiment he has seen slip away.

Brian Goldman, who focuses on emerging managers in his role at allocator Lanx Management, said it's "mind-boggling" when a new fund pitches a 2-and-20 structure to his team.

"That ship sailed years ago," said Goldman on the panel in Miami.

Read more: It's not enough to be two guys from Goldman in a room with $5 million — the bar for launching a hedge fund is rising in 2019

But emerging and smaller managers say they are stuck between two demands from investors, who want both lower fees and a strong business model. 

"When you’re a smaller manager, if you have a zero management fee, it’s considered a business risk, it’s a red flag,” said Gary DiCenzo, CEO of Cognios Capital, which runs a $60 million hedge fund and $160 million mutual fund. 

Oaktree Capital founder Howard Marks said this week it was harder than ever for new funds to get off the ground.

Increased costs for technology, data, and compliance staff, along with tougher regulatory standards, have made the environment more challenging. These pressures are coupled with continued demand from investors to lower fees.

That environment made 2018 the fifth year in a row where total fund launches declined, plummeting nearly in half to 609 from 1,169 the year before, according to the hedge-fund tracker Preqin.

Cognios charges a 1% management fee and a 15% performance fee — both below industry average — and CIO and founder Johnathan Angrist has no problem switching to a model that puts more pressure on the manager to generate returns.

“I personally would do it, but it’s viewed as an operational risk," he said. 

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David Tepper's Appaloosa hedge fund just slammed the $50 billion drugmaker Allergan in a move that's laser-focused on its CEO (AGN)

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Allergan CEO Brent Saunders

  • The billionaire David Tepper's Appaloosa LP on Tuesday made a strongly worded call for change to the drugmaker Allergan's board leadership structure.
  • Appaloosa wants Allergan's board to separate the roles of chairman and CEO, which are both held by Allergan's Brent Saunders.
  • In a Tuesday letter, Appaloosa slammed Allergan's executive decision-making, "the record for which," it said, "has been fraught with ill-considered initiatives and self-inflicted wounds for several years now."

David Tepper's Appaloosa LP hedge fund just put out a harsh call for change at the $50 billion drugmaker Allergan, and it's also a strongly worded critique of the company's leader, Brent Saunders.

Appaloosa specifically wants Allergan's board of directors to separate the roles of chairman and CEO, which are both held by Saunders. In a letter Tuesday, the hedge fund called it a "first step" to turning things around at Allergan. But the letter also makes clear that Appaloosa is condemning Saunders' leadership.

Allergan's stock has declined about 38% since Saunders became chairman in late October 2016. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has jumped 27% over the same time period.

When Appaloosa began asking for the change last April, "we believed that the introduction of a seasoned independent Chairman with extensive pharmaceutical experience could exert a favorable influence on executive decision-making, the record for which has been fraught with ill-considered initiatives and self-inflicted wounds for several years now," the Appaloosa letter said. "AGN's moribund corporate performance and flagging stock price since our letters only deepens our conviction on this point."

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Appaloosa also noted that it had made the request four times in less than a year, including Tuesday's letter. It said the board's inaction bordered "on blind obedience and raises serious fiduciary concerns."

In a statement, Allergan told Business Insider that it had received Appaloosa's proposal and was "committed to continuing to engage with them, as we do any shareholder who has input and constructive ideas."

"The company has been executing its strategy to drive growth and value for shareholders as it transforms into a global biopharmaceutical leader," the statement said. "Allergan has a strong long-term outlook across its four key therapeutics areas and a highly promising R&D pipeline."

Read more:David Tepper has gone full activist on the healthcare giant Allergan

Appaloosa isn't the only one with frustrations about the pharma company, which Saunders has led for the past four years. Allergan is best known for its profitable Botox product, but an imaginative 2017 effort to extend patent protection on another best-selling product turned into a high-profile stumble.

The company acknowledged investors' frustrations last year and announced a strategic review.

Read more: Investors are frustrated with the Botox maker Allergan — and its CEO says it's 'deep into the process' of figuring out what to do next

But when Allergan reported its financial results in late January, the RBC Capital Markets analyst Randall Stanicky downgraded it, saying the company hadn't delivered growth for three years and calling its 2019 guidance "disappointing."

This question about board leadership structure has long been controversial. Having a CEO who also serves as chairman is a common practice and has been in past years.

The two roles have distinct purposes, which is why critics say it's a conflict for one person to do both. The CEO heads up the company's daily operations, while a chairman leads a board that makes key company decisions on behalf of shareholders.

"By separating the positions, a company clearly differentiates between the roles of the board and management, and gives one director clear authority to speak on behalf of the board and to run board meetings," two professors at the Stanford Graduate School of Business wrote in a 2016 case study on the subject. "Separation eliminates conflicts in the areas of performance evaluation, executive compensation, succession planning, and the recruitment of new directors."

Read more:Chairman and CEO together or separate? Citigroup has to decide

But there's not much evidence that having one chairman and CEO on average affects a company's future performance or governance quality, the two Stanford professors, David F. Larcker and Brian Tayan, found.

"Why do activists advocate that corporations—especially large corporations—strictly separate the chairman and CEO roles?" they asked. "How much of this activism is publicity-seeking rather than an attempt to improve corporate governance?"

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